Getting outside the Beltway is the single, best way to predict what will happen on November 3, 2020. But if you can’t personally visit Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida month after month, the next best thing is getting the scoop from prospective voters themselves.

In this webinar, Rich Thau, moderator of the Swing Voter Insights Study, provides a debrief of the five key takeaways from six swing voter focus groups from across the country. Each group revealed a snapshot as to where swing voters stand on the key issues and how they are reacting to campaign messaging and candidates. The accumulated results have begun to paint a clearer picture of the trends that will likely determine the outcome of Election 2020.  

This webinar has been archived for playback. AAPC members can click here to view all webinar archives. 

Key Lessons from the Webinar: 

1. We have to pay attention to the people who are not paying attention: It is likely that swing voters will decide the next presidential race, as they did in 2016. In order to better predict the election’s outcome, political consultants should be aware of the information these groups are receiving. Based on the focus groups Thau has completed, he has determined that most swing voters are not well informed on politics or policy. Most admit to getting their news from local news channels and websites, rather than national news platforms. Additionally, when asked to identify the top Democratic presidential candidates or if they were familiar with recent hot button policies like the Green New Deal or Medicare for All, focus group respondents reported little to no knowledge of the topics.
2. The economy is the key issue for 2020 voters: While many of the swing voters surveyed in his study show a liking to Trump, or did at one point, a majority of respondents felt that the economic standing of the country “trumps” their liking of the President. While respondents stated that they would support tariffs, hypothetically, as a way to institute fair trade and bring jobs back to the U.S., an overwhelming majority also stated that if they saw a significant increase in the cost of their regular shopping, their support for the President would lessen. 

Access the full recording to hear the remaining 3 key takeaways from Thau’s focus group study.