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Navigating the endless campaign cycle

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AAPC caught up with Rick Ridder, President and Co-Founder of RBI Strategies and Amanda Malo, President of Bask Digital Media to see how they are navigating this seemingly endless campaign cycle.
 
Considering 2021 as an off-year, Amanda lists three factors that have contributed to this being an unusually busy year in campaigning:
 
1) With the growth and reliance on digital communication, we are seeing websites and social media communication efforts launch earlier and earlier. Low-dollar fundraising and list-building are fundamental activities in the digital space now as well and the sooner you start, the better.
2) Many campaigns want to keep voter engagement elevated like it was during the presidential election year when the volume was turned up high. There is fear that voters will tune out and disengage which then makes it harder to get your voters to re-engage.
3) The philosophy is evolving in recent years to embrace the idea that the sooner you start, the better of a position your campaign will be in to establish the narrative versus your opposition.
 
In comparison to past off-years, Rick says, “It is difficult to assess what we are doing differently from previous off-years, because we already are doing things differently simply because of COVID. For example we have fewer face-to-face meetings, and fewer trips to Washington than in 2019. But specifically, the biggest difference is the servicing of clients in off-year compared to the past; there is far more client campaign activity, so the firm has to be responsive to that new reality.”
 
Finally, Amanda and Rick left us with some advice for navigating this campaign cycle. Amanda’s suggestion is to “be selective about the projects you take on. It’s easier said than done but turning down a misaligned project can free up resources to take on a different project down the road that is a better fit.”
 
Rick stresses the importance of pacing yourself and your team “Often the excitement of a new client and a new race leads to a burst of company energy. But save some of that energy for the last 8 weeks — you will need and want it!”

Redistricting: What You Need to Know Going into the 2022 Cycle

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The time has come again for states to revisit and redraw their congressional districts. On yesterday’s webinar, AAPC caught up with Adam Kincaid, President & Executive Director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and Kelly Burton, President of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) to dissect how redistricting will affect the 2022 campaign cycle and cover what you need to know for your upcoming campaign work.
 
How is each party approaching redistricting this year?
 
Adam: Redistricting was not top of mind 10 years ago, but it certainly is now. The amount of public awareness that has come out of the last decade has changed the game. Both groups are definitely focused on litigation, but Republicans specifically are playing defense right now considering we drew a majority of the maps 10 years ago.
 
Kelly: We started organizing early in an attempt to not let Republicans have the same control as they did 10 years ago. You have to have your strategy and infrastructure in place early in order to organize effectively. In state after state, Democrats and progressives are supporting redistricting reforms, including independent commissions, and creating avenues for the public to be involved in the redistricting process. We believe fair maps would yield an increase in the number of competitive races around the country where both sides can compete and the voters decide the outcomes.
 
What sort of litigation are you expecting to see once the maps are drawn?
 
Adam: The lawsuits around the country are going to come in different forms than they have in the past. Political gerrymandering lawsuits will happen in the state courts now instead of federal. We are focused on drawing maps that follow state and federal laws while putting yourself in the best position possible to defend yourself in court. Overall, there will definitely be more litigation this decade than in the last decade.
 
Kelly: Over the past decade, the public has become more engaged in the redistricting process because of the heightened attention and awareness of the damaging effects of gerrymandering. As a result, there will likely be an increase in litigation in state and federal court against Republican-drawn maps that gerrymander along partisan and/or racial lines. We want maps to be fair and accurately reflect the communities.
 
How much does reforming the process play into redistricting and what should these reforms look like?
 
Adam: The problem with redistricting is that it is a binary system between two parties. If we think that competitiveness is the right way to go, I would ban the use of political data in drawing maps and use names instead of numbers so they have a geographical base to them. You would find a significant number of urban and rural seats and the battlegrounds across the country would be in the suburbs. On the Democratic side, you have groups that are approaching this as one party reforming the whole process. If we are going to reform the process we need to compromise across party lines.
 
Kelly: I think we need current people in power to commit to reform. We don’t need to push this off to the next decade. There is reform and fairness that we can achieve this time around instead of waiting. Redistricting will help shape the next decade of politics in America in 2022 and beyond, making it an incredibly important part of this cycle.
 
What is the timeline moving forward? When will we get the full map?
 
Adam: Nebraska could be done this week or early next. Indiana will likely come soon after. We will probably have our first congressional map next week if not sooner. Part of the litigation challenge is the tighter timeline, so we may not have as many maps imposed between now and the midterms. California is a big question mark right now, but New York and New Jersey have to be done by late January or early February.
 
Kelly: In some states there is a deadline and in other states there are not. The filing date is a passive deadline. Judges will want to give enough time and room for elections to be conducted on the maps. The election really comes into play in the minds of judges.
 
Are there states that you are keeping a particularly close eye on and why?
 
Adam: I’m very interested in New York, where Republicans and Democrats are responsible for working together. We’re paying close attention to make sure the law and process is followed. First maps are due quite soon and some states have primaries coming up that will be impacted by these timelines. For example, Illinois proactively moved their primary because of redistricting.
 
Kelly: We are closely watching the four big states where Republicans have total control: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. We expect to see some extreme gerrymandering out of those 4 states. If you follow the census data in those states, Democrats will pick up seats and you will see more competitive seats become available.
 
🔊 Click here to listen to the full recording for more insights!

Building Digital Plans Around Shifting Big Tech Regulations

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AAPC’s recent Digital Politics Virtual Conference featured a session about how to continue to build your digital plans around shifting big tech regulations. Looking forward to 2022, speakers Caeli Mahon, Managing Director at Targeted Victory, Domonique James, Founder of Politics with Purpose, Christian Curto, Director at Campaign Solutions, and Julia Ager, Founder & President of Sapphire Strategies shared what they learned and how they adjusted their campaigns and approaches accordingly.
 
“Having a diversity of different outlets and media platforms is critical at this point,” said Julia. “Our ad plans have started to incorporate more outlets so if one decision gets handed down, it doesn’t leave our candidates in a bind and we can still continue our media plans.”
 
It is also important to be able to “look at the results of your digital campaigns and discern whether the quality of your lead is worth it.” Caeli suggests that you must “know what your goal is, and then figure out how much you want to invest in your goal.” “Digital is really the only area where you can turn on a campaign and see if it’s working. We can be so flexible and agile, but we are held to tight standards if we don’t reach our goals.”
 
On the data side, Christian is acting more aggressively to “make sure we are doing everything we can to work with our audiences and pre-target.” “Spend more aggressively up front if something proves to be successful. We can’t count on having the same number of opportunities.”
 
On the deliverability side, Christian suggests using social listening to leverage the power of organic posts and email sign-ups. “I get a lot of questions from clients about what social listening is, and how it differs from ordinary media monitoring. Media monitoring tells you what stories out there, where listening tells you what people are saying about it and if that’s positive or negative. If you want to know if someone wrote a story about you, just set up Google alerts!”
 
“I use Sprout Social for our monitoring. There are a ton of affordable solutions out there, any of which can provide some insight. We found Sprout offered the best detail and scale for building our product, CDI Social. We place our clients into the interesting conversations happening and use social listening to improve the value of organic content instead of only using ad dollars.”
 

Recall Elections: Perspectives from California Professionals

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Since 1921, only three sitting governors have faced recall elections in the United States. For the second time in state history (and the fourth time in United States history), California voters garnered enough signatures to initiate a gubernatorial recall election of current Governor Gavin Newsom. In the coming weeks, California voters will receive a ballot with only two questions: 1) “Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor? and 2) Who should succeed Newsom if he is recalled?” If a majority of voters vote yes on the first question, the individual candidate with the most votes on the second question will automatically assume the role of Governor. On September 14th, voters will decide whether to keep Governor Newsom in power or replace him with one of the many candidates vying for the California governorship.
 
This week, we reached out to California professionals Natalie Blanning Weber and Dave Gilliard of Gilliard Blanning & Associates and Joshua Spivak, Senior Fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Center for Government Reform and author of “Recall Elections: From Alexander Hamilton to Gavin Newsom” to discuss the intricacies and implications of recall elections and give us some insight into the current fight in California.
 
How does a recall election differ from the regular election cycle?
 
Natalie and Dave: First, it takes about 2 million total signatures on official petitions to force an election. Obtaining these signatures, especially during the COVID crisis, was an extraordinary challenge. We used Direct Mail and a massive volunteer force. Once the Recall Election qualifies, the timeframe quickens. Candidates have no time to build name ID and fundraising is a huge challenge.
 
Joshua: Recalls have a very compressed time frame, which makes it quite difficult for officials targeted. In some states, including California and Wisconsin, the campaign finance laws are very different than in other elections. Essentially, there are no limits on fundraising for the target (in California, it is treated as a ballot measure). The result is that the target (Newsom) can raise unlimited funds. Every recall target uses the argument that the recall is a waste of money and an abuse of the process. Sometimes this works, but most of the time, it does not — over the last 10 years, 60% of recall elections have resulted in removal and 6% have led to resignations.
 
What are the challenges associated with recall campaigns? How do you overcome these challenges?
 
Natalie and Dave: The YES side has one real advantage – it starts with a lead, in our case a lead of 2 million votes – those who signed the petition. For both sides, the calendar and fundraising are the two biggest challenges. There is little time to educate voters about the recall process, the timing, the importance of voting, etc.
 
Joshua: The big challenge is turnout. The recall proponents have a “movers’ advantage,” as they are already engaged and enraged. The targeted official must make sure their supporters get to the polls. Notably, in the three previous gubernatorial recall elections, turnout shot up from the last mid-term election.
 
What are your projections for the September 14th recall election in California?
 
Natalie and Dave: Question one will be very close. California is a deeply blue state, but with a large percentage of voters highly dissatisfied with the state of affairs – from crime, to homelessness to the cost of living. Californians are paying $5 a gallon for gas! With fires raging and water being cut-off to farms, voters are angry. Republicans are highly motivated to vote in the recall, and Gavin Newsom has a serious problem with his own base. Independents, a key group in California elections, are split evenly. A Republican will take question two.
 
Joshua: The polls have been moving in a favorable direction for Republicans and supporters of the recall. However, these polls seem to be focused on likely voters. It is not clear how well that screen works, especially with ballots already mailed to people’s homes. By virtue of being in California and the campaign finance rules, Newsom has some significant advantages. What is very different from the Gray Davis recall and the Gavin Newsom one is how much more “blue” California has become. In 2002, Gray Davis won election with 47%. Since you need 50% to survive the recall, Davis was already 3% underwater on day one. Newsom won with 62% of the vote. So he has a 12 point cushion, which is a great advantage.
 
How does a recall effort in 2021 impact the 2022 midterms in California?
 
Natalie and Dave: If Gavin Newsom is recalled it will send shockwaves across the nation, especially in progressive circles and, hopefully, rebalance things in California, where hope will be restored for Republicans.
 
Joshua: It is not clear at this time. It could be that if Gavin Newsom does well, the Republicans will not be able to get a high-quality candidate at the top of the ticket (or even get shut out of the top two race). The result could damage them down ballot. However, it is also likely that it has no impact whatsoever. In 2012, Scott Walker fended off a recall in June. It would be hard to claim that this race helped the Republicans in November, when Barack Obama won Wisconsin.
 

How Ranked Choice Voting Impacts Elections

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In New York City’s recent Mayoral Primary election, ranked choice voting was used for the first time in decades. This week, we caught up with Ben Tulchin, President of Tulchin Research and pollster for the Eric Adams Mayoral campaign, and polling expert Adam Probolsky, President of Probolsky Research. Read on for their insights on the impact of ranked choice voting, and how it affects campaign strategy.
 
How much of an impact do you believe ranked choice voting makes on a Primary election?
 
Ben: It had a huge impact in the New York Mayoral Primary election. First of all, every campaign had to figure out a strategy in terms of how they were going to deal with ranked choice voting (RCV). It meant our campaign couldn’t just determine a strategy to get the most 1st place votes, but also how to ensure we got enough 2nd and 3rd place votes (and 4th and 5th!) to ensure we got the 50+1 we needed to win. The bottom line is it required our campaign to have a more complex, multi-dimensional strategy that would not have been the case had RCV not been in effect.
 
Adam: It expands the pool of voters for some candidates because, while a candidate might not be the first choice of a voter, they absolutely need to compete to be second, third, fourth, or fifth.
 
Does ranked choice voting have any effect (positive or negative) on voter turnout?
 
Ben: Difficult to say. I believe turnout in the New York Mayoral Primary election was so large due to the fact that this was the first open mayoral race in 8 years, that there was a very diverse and talented field of candidates who attracted a wide array of voters, and that New Yorkers had just endured a tough year due to COVID and are experiencing a serious crime wave, so there was a lot at stake in this election and a lot of reasons for New Yorkers to get out and vote.
 
Adam: We will likely see, at least in the short term, that ranked choice voting suppresses voter turnout. The confusing nature of the system turns people off. Statistics promoted by RCV advocates that suggest it yields greater participation fails to take into account other factors, like interest in the contest.
 
How is your polling analysis different when ranked choice voting is at play? Does this system more accurately reflect the collective will of the majority?
 
Ben: In terms of my polling analysis, I had to spend a lot more time figuring how to build a coalition that not only got us the most 1st place votes, but that also could appeal to a broad enough coalition to get other voters to get to 50+1 percent of the RCV vote in the final round.
 
Adam: Polling for RCV is not more different than typical one-person one-vote elections, but it is easier to do in online research vs. telephone polling. But more than 75% of voters prefer to complete surveys online. And no, ranked choice voting does not have some magical powers that shine a light on the true nature of what the majority wants. It is a voting scheme, just like any other.
 
Does ranked choice voting affect the strategies that campaign consultants usually rely on during a campaign cycle?
 
Ben: Absolutely. RCV scrambled the game a lot and made all campaigns put more effort in their strategies and approaches to how they campaigned.
 
Adam: Yes. Conventional campaign strategy dictates that we hold up our candidates high and pull the rug out from under the competition – if their position in the race warrants the attack. But RCV changes this equation. With RCV, hits need to be much more calculated because your candidate might hurt their chances at being the 2nd choice of that voter if they know she is attacking their number one.
 
The one net positive to RCV to independents like me, is that RCV has a moderating effect on campaign rhetoric.
 

Keeping your campaign active throughout the off-season

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This week, we caught up with Joe Pileggi, Partner at 1892, LLC and consultant on the Mike Garcia for Congress campaign, Jonathan Ratliff, Partner at Palm Strategic Group and Campaign Manager for the Caleb Rowden for State Senate campaign and Sam Oh, Vice President of Targeted Victory and Campaign Manager for the Young Kim for Congress campaign.

To read more, login to the AAPC Member Network. 

Webinar Recap: Establishing Your Personal Brand

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AAPC’s recent webinar geared towards young professionals, students and campaign operatives looking to break into the political consulting business featured an expert-led panel including Doc Sweitzer, Jenifer Sarver, Rebecca Tweed, and Davisha L. Johnson. Each shared tips on how to best establish a personal brand, discussed how to distinguish yourself from the oversaturated market, where to start when building your network, and the do’s and don’ts to break into the business. 

To read more, login to the AAPC Member Network. 

Campaign Finance Laws: What to know for the 2022 Cycle

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The AAPC recently spoke with multiple lawyers specializing in campaign finance laws to help clarify what campaigns need to know going into the 2022 cycle, including Robert Kelner, Partner at Covington & Burling LLP, Lacey Keys, Founder of Keys Law Corporation, and Darrin Lim, Partner at Politicom Law LLP.

To read more, login to the AAPC Member Network. 

Preparing for the Next Cycle: List Building and Fundraising

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Campaign teams and consultants across the country are busy preparing for the next cycle, and a major focus during this time period is fundraising and list building. The AAPC recently spoke with Maggie Paulin, Vice President of Client Services, and the Campaign Solutions team to get their thoughts on best practices for engaging the electorate and preparing for the next cycle.

 

To read more, login to the AAPC Member Network.