Patrick Ruffini on the Diploma Divide and more

In our latest episode of the Future of Political Consulting podcast, courtesy of our Greater NY Chapter, Chapter Co-Chairs Bradley Honan (Honan Strategy Group) and Chapin Fay (Lighthouse Public Affairs), talk with renowned GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) and author of Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, about the shifting dynamics of voter coalitions.

“The fundamental dividing line has been between those with and without a college degree,” Bradley noted, emphasizing the role of education in recent voting shifts. Patrick highlighted a striking 37-point swing toward the GOP among non-white voters without college degrees, noting that it’s “redefining the ideological terrain,” and challenging traditional partisan assumptions.

Locally, Chapin observed rightward shifts in New York City’s diverse communities, with Patrick describing this as a “microcosm” of national trends, explaining that these shifts are a testament to the GOP’s ability to connect on cultural and economic issues, with the former taking center stage as a key driver of voter behavior.

Patrick also detailed how Trump’s campaign leveraged issues like trade and immigration to win over working-class voters: “He positioned himself as an anti-establishment candidate in a way that resonated deeply. It’s a strategy that’s durable, not just because of Trump, but because of the broader realignment within the electorate.”

Looking ahead, Patrick stressed the importance of targeted outreach: “This is an all-of-the-above strategy, from podcasts to door-knocking in diverse neighborhoods. Campaigns need to meet voters where they are. The electorate in 2028 will look fundamentally different from what we’ve seen in the past.”

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